AG Recovers the “Stolen” Rafale File Overnight

If it were not a very serious matter of National security, all citizens would have laughed out loud at the farce being enacted in the Supreme Court since last week. The Attorney General argued before the SC that the Petitioners could not cite the Rafale documents published in The Hindu article, as those were from the Secret file that had been stolen from the Ministry of Defence (MoD). When questioned, he nonchalantly stated that an internal investigation was on, but no FIR had been lodged. Quite aghast, the Chief Justice directed him to file details of the loss and the actions taken at the next hearing.

Print and visual media, in obsequiousness to the Govt’s sensitivities, reported this in an uncharacteristically toned down matter of fact manner even though it was a bombshell, given that the Secret file pertained to the scam-tainted Rafale deal. Social media however went berserk, with alarmed citizens questioning how an ultra-sensitive Secret file could go missing from the MoD. Coming soon after the massive intelligence failure that led to the Pulwama carnage, people questioned the cavalier manner in which the Govt was treating National security. Irate citizens called for action against the Defence Secretary as the head of MoD, and the resignation of the RM.

Obviously, there was consternation in the Govt and Party circles. But, lo and behold, the very next day the AG discovered that the file was NOT STOLEN after all. It had merely been photocopied and leaked to The Hindu. As if photocopying of a Secret MoD document was any less serious or alarming a crime. It seemed as if the AG was mocking the SC Bench, and belittling the intelligence of the learned Judges.

Notwithstanding his advanced age, it is unlikely that a seasoned legal eagle like the AG would have committed a faux pas. Apparently, bumbling bureaucrats in the MoD have led him up the gum tree with their shoddy efforts to cover the tracks, primarily to save their Master, Modi Ji from the burgeoning Rafale scandal. It will be interesting to see if the Bench takes serious umbrage at this volte face. This is even more necessary since the Bench is already adjudicating the far more serious issue of the Govt misleading the Court with an unsigned affidavit that had several false and inaccurate statements.

Even to the most ardent BJP supporters it will be clear that there is much more to it than meets the eye. With its shoddy handling of the Rafale issue, the Govt has indeed strengthened the suspicions of even unbiased observers. It is an acknowledged axiom that the numerous attempts to cover up an original crime end up being far more lethal. Perhaps, the Modi Govt could have learnt a lesson from Dirty Dick’s fate in the infamous Watergate scandal.

NSA Overseeing Military Operations

It is outright bizarre that the NSA is overseeing active military operations and the Service Chiefs report to him. True,entrust that he has the status of MoS but the PM's decision to trust him rather than Service Chiefs during operations is absurd.

He has no expertise in military warfare, in which the Service Chiefs have 40 years of intense training, combat experience, and professional handling of such a large force. For a person who is not adept at his own job, and on whose watch so many intelligence failures and terror strikes (even as recently as Pulwama), it is inexplicable why would the PM put him in overall charge during such a critical time.

THE TIDE IS TURNING

I am both, happy as well as sad at the UP and Bihar bye-poll results. Close on the heels of Rajasthan and MP bye-polls; it is a clear signal that the tide is beginning to turn. I am happy because these results hopefully would dissipate BJP’s hubris, deflate its arrogance, and drive it towards introspection and course-correction.

Its rant that this was due to an unholy alliance between SP and BSP is ludicrous; given that it itself is allied with the brazenly anti-national PDP in J&K, and with regional parties in Nagaland and Tripura, which have had a track-record of separatist demands.

At the same time I am sad too because BJP has been a terrible let-down, given that it was given a massive mandate. With its absolute majority it was not encumbered with coalition constraints as the UPA was. It boasted of being a ‘party with a difference’ and was expected to deliver. Not only has it failed miserably to meet peoples’ expectations, it even shot itself in the foot with its hare-brained demonetization fiasco and shoddy implementation of GST.

Its biggest mistake has been its Hindutva agenda. Most people are alarmed at its divisive politics and hyper-Nationalism, due to which the Nation was let aghast with crisis-a-day headlines; such as lynching, moral-policing, love-jihad, Padmavat drama, polarizing and shameful utterances (e.g. against Jawans) as well as uncouth and arrogant behavior of its leaders.

Brazen contravention of democratic norms and weakening of institutions too have shocked people. Spate of recent scandals and signs of palace intrigues have been marring its credibility. The sense of optimism among the people after its victory has given way to despondency, despair and foreboding.

I am also unhappy because the alternative too does not seem promising, given the lack of a strong, credible opposition. BJP takes refuge behind the TINA (there is no alternative) factor, but that only leads to arrogance and complacency, as has been the Nation’s experience in the past. If it unequivocally sheds the Hindutva plank, and focuses only on an inclusive, pluralist and developmental agenda, it might retrieve some lost ground.   

“The Last Straw….”

The shameful and shocking brutal action of the police against aged veterans and Veer Naris at Jantar Mantar is virtually “the last straw” in the series of humiliating and grossly unjust actions of the Govt against the entire veterans’ fraternity, which has left it anguished and incensed. Serving Armed Forces personnel too are bristling at the treatment meted out to their revered elders, and dismayed at the prospect of facing similar humiliation upon their own retirement. Armed Forces personnel, serving as well as retired, had overwhelmingly voted for the Ruling party, enthused by the promises made by the PM at Rewari. Sadly, the disillusionment is complete due to not just the charade of a truncated OROP, but also due to the long list of injustices, such as diminution in status vis a vis other services, cadre review, Pay Commission anomalies, NFU, and disparities in allowances etc. Tasks thrust upon soldiers, such as laying yoga mats on Rajpath, constructing pontoon bridge and stage for a quasi-religious organization, cleaning up high altitude tourism spots, and constructing railway footbridges, too have been causing heartburn and murmurs why the military leadership does not insulate them from such demeaning orders. The entire gamut of issues seems to be a concerted assault on our ‘izzat’ and ‘iqbal’, orchestrated by an ill-willed bureaucracy, and egged on by an uncaring political class.

The ‘last straw’ perhaps represents our ‘last chance’ to proactively defend our honour. If we do not do so now and allow our struggle to be squashed by the Govt’s coercive, strong-arm tactics, then it will be impossible to mobilize again. We can then bid good-bye to all our aspirations. Moreover, the Neta-Babu combine would then be emboldened to further escalate our denigration. I had anticipated precisely the same scenario in my book, “Operation Jantar Mantar” that peaceful, disciplined protests would eventually be disrupted with insensitive and brutish force. With our collective wisdom we have to find new innovative means of fighting for our cause, over and above the ongoing legal avenues and negotiations.

We need to meet this challenge by setting aside personal egos and respective political persuasions and close ranks. It is true that our ethos is to remain apolitical; but it does not mean passive neutrality. If the current dispensation has belied the promises made, in letter and spirit, then it must be opposed. Its votaries might cite 50 years of inaction by the opposing party, but it has been punished in the last election. This plea cannot be allowed as an alibi for the Ruling combine’s breach of faith. I also do not subscribe to the TINA (there is no alternative) argument. The Congress Govts thrived for over 50 years using the same ploy, but now our enlightened polity must not allow the Ruling dispensation to exploit it. I have full faith that this country of 130 billion people will throw up new leaders who can be better trusted to deliver. By training and ethos we have always kept the Nation’s interest ahead of our own. But now the question is of our own ‘izzat’ and ‘iqbal’. If we cannot defend our own honour, how can we be expected to defend that of the Nation?        

Righteous War - Flawed Strategy - Shoddy Execution

Civility in public discourse has become a rarity and even eminent people have been trading profanities unabashedly, as seen in the recent US elections. In today's sharply polarized environment this piece on demonetization too would elicit very contrasting reactions from Modi-bhakts and Modi-baiters, who are more likely to view it through their subjective, ideological  prisms. Due to our set ideas most of us tend to see everything in absolute terms - as purely white or black (pun unintended), while in the real world there are only varying shades of grey.  

Corruption is a worldwide scourge and no country is immune from it. While in developing countries the common folk face it in everyday life, in developed economies it has been finessed, and institutionalized at the highest political and corporate levels. One major difference however is that when scandals erupt in developed countries the culprits, howsoever high and mighty, are not spared, whereas in Third World countries the big fish always get away scot-free.  

That the war against corruption and its byproduct black money is 'righteous' is beyond dispute. All governments regardless of party affiliations claim to wage it, presumably sincerely, but with little or no success. The overarching 'intent' of the Govt's demonetization move per se  is laudable. However the apparent aim-plus - that of reaping political dividends, has  confounded the timing and seriously flawed its execution. To determine whether demonetization would indeed solve the problem of black money and reduce corruption, we need to view these terms in the correct perspective.   

Black money is unaccounted money that ought to have been taxed. It is generated by evading taxes on income acquired through legitimate means, as well as through blatantly criminal activities and bribes.  Thus, one could characterize the former as being less black than the latter. But is it cash alone? If it were to be hoarded in the form of real estate, gold, pricey antiques,  luxury cars, yachts etc, it would still be out of the tax net illegally, and thus unaccounted. 

Another misnomer is about cash within and outside the banking system. If one keeps large amounts of cash at home, for whatever reason, but has accounted for it and paid taxes, it does not amount to black money. Likewise, all money in bank accounts does not automatically qualify as white money, if it is not accounted for in tax returns. Further, if one were to avoid paying taxes through devious or ingenious means, would such cash holdings be strictly white? Donald Trump has not paid any Federal Income Tax for many years. It is a moot point if all of his billions are legit.   

Nowhere in the world has a direct co-relation been empirically established between cash, both inside or outside the banking system, and tax evasion. With such a plethora of sources that generate black money, there could not have been a single, one size fits all solution. It would require a series of measures, launched in lock-step fashion as part of a coherent and coordinated campaign. But was demonetization the ideal weapon, given its enormous cost and overwhelming logistics? Would it provide optimal results against all the different sources of black money? Let us analyze briefly.

• Evasion of corporate taxes by big business houses and multinational firms is done through mechanisms such as transfer pricing, intra-firm transfers to shell companies in tax havens, round-tripping etc. Demonetization would not affect such practices. 
• It would also not affect personal income taxes of corporate honchos; they do not receive salary and bonuses in cash. Most would have stashed their unaccounted wealth in foreign tax havens. In any case those in the ilk of Vijay Mallya have easier ways of living in luxury, by defaulting on the astronomical loans given by public sector banks without due diligence. 
• Likewise most politicians, bureaucrats, and professionals too would have stashed away their ill-gotten wealth abroad, away from the reach of the tax-man. 
• A substantial percentage of black-money lies converted into real-estate, gold and other assets, which demonetization cannot address, and would require separate detection and punitive measures.
• It would certainly affect cash transactions in satta, hawala, drugs, weapons, counterfeiting and other illicit activities. However, it is not beyond the devious capabilities of the corrupt to convert substantial portion of their black money via millions of Jan Dhan accounts and similar third party transactions, by keeping them below the announced threshold. Govt has warned that such transactions would be monitored and prosecuted. But it begs the question that if our IT and other vigilance agencies were indeed so capable, and sincere, about monitoring millions of such accounts, then how has black money risen to such monstrous proportions in the first place? There would be some token prosecutions, but the police/raid raj would would generate new black money of its own. As an aside, millions of poor Jan Dhan account holders, who have been eagerly waiting for their promised 15 lacs, could hardly be blamed for becoming the conduit, to earn few hundreds in commissions.  
• Black money is the biggest contributor to the poll financing of ALL political parties. The ill-prepared, hasty and untimely (sowing season) launch is strongly indicative of the political aim-plus of this move. Opposition parties have been upstaged ahead of three vital assembly polls. Not only their poll financing has been put out of gear, the propaganda value of dubbing their protests as "pro-black money," can be enormous.     

I am sure the powers-that-be must have done an in-depth cost-benefit analysis before launching this measure. Even if we ignore its legal implication (each currency note carries RBI Governor's solemn promise to pay the bearer), it involved the sudden withdrawal of almost 85% of the total value of the currency in circulation.  It was also imperative to provide the shortest possible window for note replacement, or else the black-money holders would render the exercise futile. 

They would have, I presume, taken into account the enormous costs of printing new notes, costs and logistics of transporting them to the remotest corners of our huge country and the monumental task of actual replacement, manually as well as through ATMs - the latter only after re-calibration. And during all this time our economy - so preponderantly dependent upon cash transactions - was supposed to carry on business as usual.

And for all these costs, what benefits are likely to accrue? While some black money would go out of the parallel economy, a substantial amount of unaccounted wealth would still be out-of-reach as discussed above. Separate measures would need to be taken to monitor, detect and recover unaccounted wealth from those sources. Hence, may one ask, why could not those measures be taken first, rather than carpet-bombing the entire economy with demonetization? It would be evident to everyone that it has resulted in widespread collateral damage, and achieved only sub-optimal gains. It makes as little sense as Bush's advisers resorting to the monstrous 15000 lb daisy-cutter bombs in Tora Bora mountains to get Osama and his hordes, who merrily escaped to safe havens in Pakistan. 

This measure was also intended to counter terror-funding since enormous amounts of counterfeit currency is being injected from Pakistan. That is indeed a major benefit, at least in the near-term, till such time ISI is able to replicate the safety features in the new notes. In this case too, would it not have been more cost-effective for our much-vaunted, intelligence agencies to undertake more effective steps for physical interception of such currency, as well as electronic monitoring and disruption of the hawala conduits? 

The chaotic scenes witnessed in the past few days, and the Govt's piecemeal, band-aid responses indicate that neither this mammoth exercise had been thought through in depth, nor any contingency planning was done. In the face of growing public resentment Govt is taking knee-jerk actions. All such relaxations are increasing the window of opportunity for the corrupt and thus reducing the efficacy of this ultra-expensive and disruptive measure. The Govt is clearly caught between a rock and a hard place.  

It is obvious that the PM's  advisers have let him down by presenting an ill-conceived plan without due analysis, and even more so by shoddy execution. A frantic fire-fighting operation is now on to somehow muddle through the chaos with instant fixes. On the political front, patriotism of the hapless citizens is being invoked, and voices of protest are being drowned by dubbing them anti-national and pro-corrupt.    

Can’t Convince? – Then Confound the Issue

The ugly fracas at JNU has opened up a Pandora’s Box, and given all political parties an opportunity to play, what they excel at – dirty politics. Much to the disappointment of Armed Forces personnel, the fracas has pushed the emotive issue of the tragic demise of L/Nk Hanamanthappa and his nine comrades into the background. But, it didn’t stop the self-anointed arbiters of “patriotism” from brazenly exploiting his heroic struggle against death, to decry the “lack of patriotism” of rival political parties. Even that insufferable loudmouth, Arnab Goswami outdid himself by shamelessly using his name to shout down panelists on his “Noise-Hour” programme.

Anti-national slogans by the demonstrators have to be condemned unequivocally. The actual perpetrators must be identified, their antecedents made public and appropriate action taken against them; no question about it. All political parties have in fact demanded the same, quite unambiguously.  But, the blatant attempt of the Ruling party and its ideological fraternity to deliberately confound the issue, is most disturbing.

It is reprehensible that they have used the highly objectionable slogans of a small group as a pretext to question the patriotism of all students and faculty, and tar the entire institution. Foisting sedition charges on Kanhaiya Kumar, despite his not shouting even a single anti-national slogan in the videos, merely because he was decrying the HRD Minister and the Govt on various issues, is bound to boomerang. Its cadres are using abusive language and violence against those protesting ham-handed actions of the Mighty State, which smacks of unbridled authoritarianism.

The ploy of “giving the dog a bad name and shooting it” is not new. It has been used all through the ages to neutralize those deemed inimical by the Ruling Elite. It is not confined to absolute monarchies, dictators and fascist regimes alone. Even democracies have used it, though with more finesse. J Edgar Hoover’s crusade against commies, or the suppression of anti-VietNam war groups in USA, and our own excesses during the Emergency are some examples.

However, history also shows that none of those regimes survived for long and people, howsoever weak they might have been, have prevailed ultimately. Just as the trite saying “nothing succeeds like success,” it can also be said, “nothing backfires like excess.” 

There are several signs that the Ruling party is treading dangerously in that direction. It has brazenly foisted own people in FTII, Censor Board, Think-tanks, universities and bodies that decide on curricula and textbooks. It has not reined in its leaders from making highly inflammatory statements, and it has drowned out voices that sought to protest intolerance. It has stubbornly refused action against senior leaders facing serious corruption charges and has misused the office of Governors. In fact it is doing all those things that it had accused the Congress regimes of, and for which they were punished by the people. It would be a pity if the Ruling party were to meet the same fate.   

Farewell – My Countrymen

Farewell my countrymen, may you ever prosper.

Am so grateful for your prayers, though in vain;

But do not despair;

Am much better off in my new domain.

Better to go in a blaze of glory, serving the Motherland;

Than end up a vegetable; a burden on all.

Nor did I fancy retiring, with struggles galore,

Seeing the woeful plight of veterans,

Agitating valiantly for our rights and honour.

Grateful too for the PM’s gracious visit,

Despite his onerous chores.

Regret couldn’t stand up and salute,

And apologize for the blushes caused,

In surviving his tributes to us - the fallen.

Those who told him, ‘there is no hope’,

Should have known better.

Comrades would dig even with bare hands

Till the last remains are found.

I humbly urge the powers that be, follow the Global norm,

Don’t sound “the last post” till one is actually gone.

Soldiers yearn for decorations and gallantry awards,

Fills them and their ‘paltan’ with pride.

And if one has to go,

What better way than draped in Tricolour.

Having received immense love and adulation,

There’s nothing more I can ask for.

My only regret is, had I known what awaits me,

Would’ve bid my family a more befitting farewell.  

Where I am, I’m beyond needs or pain.

But not so with the dear ones I leave behind.

I request that their dues be promptly paid,

Whatever little our poor country can afford.

My wife is a simple, uneducated village lady,

Who knows not the intricacies of Babudom.

My daughter, too young to comprehend what’s happened,

Will cry out when with hunger she’s overcome.

Please be aware their pain will torment me, 

Regardless, wherever I am.

I urge you therefore, my dear countrymen,

Do not let an insensitive and uncaring system

Compound the miseries of the kin of martyrs,

That regularly turn up in flag-draped coffins.