“Bhookhe Bhajan Na Hoye Gopala”

“Bhookhe Bhajan Na Hoye Gopala”

The Balakot-fuelled ultra-Nationalist pitch, along with the utopian Hindu Rashtra dream acted as steroids to mask BJP’s lack-lustre performance, and won it a thumping majority. While the BJP Top Brass’s euphoria has waned now, many fawning TV anchors are still experiencing orgasmic raptures as they rave about their dead accurate forecasts of the electorate’s mood. Perhaps, for the next elections, the EC could consider declaring results based on prophecies of oracles from Republic, Times Now, Zee News, Aaj Tak, CNN News 18 and India Today news channels, and save the Nation crores in election expenses.

The mood of the top hierarchy of Modi 2.0 is appropriately more sombre, as it gets down to business. It is aware that this time there may not even be the usual honeymoon period when the people patiently give time to the new regime to settle down. For Modi 1.0 that period ran much longer until the demonetization hara-kiri. People’s expectations now are very high and their patience is running low. GDP growth has slowed down; investments have dried up; Banks’ NPAs have risen to record heights; NBFCs are in crises, and industrial growth is virtually negligible. Adding to the Govt’s worries is the late and likely-to-be deficient monsoon, with 42% of India’s land area already reeling under drought.

The alacrity with which the new Govt released the ACTUAL unemployment figures, which it had been obfuscating all through the pre-election period, clearly shows its great anxiety on this account. It has thus admitted to the true situation, and in the process set the Base level very low, so that even marginal increases in employment generation in future could be touted as great progress. However, it is well aware that this time gimmickry and fudging of economic data and performance figures will not work.

I believe Bhakt Sur Das is credited with the words “Bhookhe Bhajan Na Hoye Gopala”. This should be a clear reminder and a warning to the NDA Govt that no amount of artificially generated Narratives on Nationalism, Hindu Rashtra, real or concocted internal and external security threats, populist schemes and seductive promises will assuage people’s hunger, wants, and expectations. Ram Mandir will not be a substitute for real and substantive progress on all fronts, and a marked amelioration of the peoples lot.

I am inclined to believe the Prime Minister’s exhortation to carry along all communities and sections of society, as a course-correction. Lack of communal and social harmony will be very detrimental for economic recovery and hence the signal to tone down the communal rhetoric, which has already served its electoral purpose. But, has the signal emanated from Nagpur, from where strident voices are already clamouring for early construction of Ram Mandir? Will not the militant Hindutva outfits queer the pitch for the Govt? Even if the PM is earnest, will he be able to take firmer steps against the hotheaded cadres, even at the risk of alienating his base? Doubtful. Once you have mounted the communal tiger, it is difficult to dismount.

As for the Opposition, BJP’s thumping victory ought to be a blessing in disguise. Even if it had somehow formed a Govt, how long would it have lasted after inheriting such enormous economic and social problems? With their disparate agendas, bloated egos, unrealistic ambitions, and in the absence of even a common minimum programme, they would have ended up as the Janata Party, and sent into oblivion. Now, the shoe is on the other foot. It is the NDA Govt, which has to deliver, not only by rectifying the several faux pas of its previous tenure, but also by meeting the heightened expectations of the people. Having been given an overwhelming mandate, it cannot have any excuse for non-delivery. It will have to perform or perish.      

IT IS TIME TO RECLAIM OUR DEMOCRACY

With two rounds of polls remaining, it is almost certain that we are headed for a hung Parliament. Whichever be the constituents of the new coalition, it is also certain that we will not have to suffer another arrogant, reckless, and capricious Government, which bulldozed all democratic norms and subverted all the institutions.

It is mind-boggling how the PM’s larger-than-life image, albeit publicity-driven, has been so severely dented in just 2-3 years that he is being lampooned publicly. This should be a chastening lesson, not just for the BJP, but to all political parties that people cannot be fooled by false promises, communal polarization, diversionary jingoistic rhetoric or deceitful media manipulation.  

Regardless of which coalition comes to power, the new Government will inherit staggering problems. Massive unemployment, agrarian distress, a slowing economy with low gross capital formation and loss of faith in democratic institutions are just a few of them, which will need to be addressed on top priority.

In this post, however, I am not seeking to address specific problems or discuss various options. That will have to wait till the final elections results are in, and a new Government is installed. This post is intended to highlight some generic, vital issues that the new dispensation will have to tackle up front.

·      White Paper on State of the Economy. That the economy is not in a sound shape is quite well known. However, what is the actual state of health of various sectors of the economy is not clear, primarily because the BJP government has been obfuscating and concealing those details. The NSSO, which used to publish data periodically had been rendered ineffective and hence there are no reliable statistics available on various economic parameters. This has even hurt the credibility of our data in multilateral institutions, which used to rely on such primary data. Even the RBI, which ought to function autonomously, has often been arm-twisted by the FM to be less forthcoming, especially post-demonetization.

·     Restoring Credibility of Institutions. The credibility of various Constitutional and other important institutions has taken quite a beating under the current dispensation. This will need to be reversed on an urgent basis to restore the people’s faith in them and in the Rule of Law.

·   Transparent Investigation of all Deals and Wrong-doings. A large number of alleged scams, arbitrarily awarded sweetheart deals, shoddy investigation and suppression of serious crimes etc have taken place, which the Government ham-handedly abetted or concealed. All these must be probed and the guilty brought to book. This must be done in a totally transparent manner, without it appearing to be out of political vendetta. This is vital to restore the people’s faith and to send the message that no one is above the law, regardless of financial or political clout.  

·   Appointments to Constitutional Positions. Despite the Founding fathers clearly laying down norms for appointments to critical Constitutional positions to ensure separation of powers, most Governments have tried to fill them with cronies. This must stop, as many such appointees have been brazenly partisan towards the ruling dispensation. Parliament must enact a law to prohibit the appointment of SC and HC judges and senior bureaucrats to such positions within three years of their retirement to prevent their currying favours with the Government while in service when discharging their duties.

·     Rectifying the Ideological Tilt. A large number of appointees were placed in various official and quasi-official institutions, educational bodies, and even government offices who had an ideological background, which militated against the secular ethos enshrined in our Constitution. This is dangerous for the unity, integrity and communal harmony of the country and such elements need to be weeded out.

·     The Politicisation of the Armed Forces. This extremely dangerous trend has been seen recently. It will leave a devastating impact not just on the fighting potential, camaraderie and morale of the Armed Forces, but on the security of the Nation itself. This has to be ruthlessly curbed and reversed. Political and bureaucratic interference in the appointment to senior ranks too must end.  

·  Norms for Media. Never before in the Nation’s history, has our Media been so outrageously partisan as in the recent past. It is a crying shame for an institution, which is supposed to be a vital pillar of our democracy. This is a critical challenge since a balance has to be struck between genuine freedom of the press and some form of regulation. Ideally, it should be self-regulation and media should be judged for its independence in the court of public opinion. That, regrettably, is not happening. The government must evolve a consensus to have some sort of legislative or normative curbs on media ownership so that Media is not manipulated by convergent corporate and political interests. The public too must very emphatically call out and lampoon Media channels and anchors that try to fool the people with their partisan coverage.

Regrettably, in the past few years, our democracy has come close to being characterized as a banana republic, primarily due to the egregious trampling of all democratic norms by the current dispensation. It will be a challenge for the next Government that it does not succumb to the same temptation of unbridled abuse of power for electoral gains or personal profit. It will be an even greater challenge for we the people not to get carried away by politicians’ promises. We have to remain ever vigilant and must boldly question the wrong-doings of the high and mighty, whether in the Government or outside it.  

IT IS TIME TO RECLAIM OUR DEMOCRACY.

The Idea of Indian Nationhood is under Threat

The trigger for this BlogSpot is a close friend’s disagreement with my apprehension that the very idea of Indian Nationhood is under threat. He argues that it is a canard being spread by those opposed to Modi Ji, and he buttresses his argument by asking whether I saw lynchings or mayhem in the streets during my stay in India last year. No, I didn’t see that. However, an undercurrent of polarization and intolerance was certainly palpable compared with my previous visits, as were intimidation by Right-wing trolls and brazen muscle-power by its cadres and supporters.

Undoubtedly, there was also a sharp divide in all sections, even among the so-called intelligentsia, on the sharp pro or anti-Modi binary - nothing in between. More glaring was the wily masking of the forceful Hindutva rhetoric with the subtle, yet potent Nationalism label. Of course, the ploy was to define Nationalism ad lib and exploit it for everything, as and when required to shore up the original goals.

It was also clearly discernible how the original shrill ‘persecuted Hindus’ Narrative was toned down by embracing other emotive issues. One would recall how almost two years before the 2014 polls, social media was deluged with tales of atrocities against Hindus over the centuries, about the demographic invasion through prolific procreation by Muslims and Christians, love jihad, questions as to why terrorists worldwide are only from a particular religion, while ignoring the fact none was from the 172 million Muslims in India, and charges of Muslim appeasement. PM Manmohan Singh was denigrated in the vilest of terms, but the most abusive posts were directed against the Nehru-Gandhi family, with even attempts to trace their Muslim origins several generations back.

While the strategy worked and Modi was elected with a sweeping majority, much to the dismay of the Right-wing ideologues, BJP polled only 31% of the popular vote. Clearly, most Indians rejected the aggressive Hindutva stance, and hence a course correction was warranted. Then started a concerted image-building campaign by highlighting the softer nation-building agenda of the RSS (it even tried to snare Pranab Mukherjee). Hordes of ‘motivational speakers’ including many Veterans were hired to influence impressionable minds in schools and colleges. Numerous ‘right’-minded experts on economy etc and military experts filled TV panels on friendly channels to sing praises of the regime’s measures – even demonetization. Opposing views were shouted down, trolled or labeled anti-National.

How can I assert all this so definitively, you would ask? Contrary to popular belief that Right-wing strategy is formulated in Nagpur, a substantive role is played by the Hindutva organizations and ideologues among expatriates, especially those based in USA. More importantly, the financing of IT companies that control the trolls, the legions of motivational speakers, opinion makers and experts, and all other components of the campaign is taken care of by the deep pockets here. And tongues loosen up when single malts go down. Let us leave it at that.

Let us get back to the question as to why I feel the very idea of Indian Nationhood is under threat. Notwithstanding all the tactical flip-flops of the BJP (Mandir, go-raksha, NRC, polarization, and now Nationalism, soft rashtrawad etc) due to the electoral dynamic, the core agenda remains the same. It is no secret that the RSS has always been unhappy with the secular basis of our Nation, as enshrined in the Constitution. The ultimate goal remains the same – Hindu Rashtra – attained either de jure through Constitutional amendment or de facto through muscular intimidation, ghar wapsi, or Goebellsian indoctrination till the remaining Hindus fall in line.    

Religious polarization is dangerous. Once the genie is released, there is no turning back from the hell it creates. Recall how our parents used to say that when the Hindu Mahasabha and RSS on one side and the Muslim League on the other, first introduced their communal rhetoric in the 1930s, most people dismissed it as mere jockeying for positions by the politicians. How it turned into the communal holocaust of Partition was quite unexpected. Who suffered? Not the politicians on either side, who got plum positions. It was millions of innocent people caught in the communal frenzy.

I, as an infant, was one of those millions. My mother and I caught near fatal diseases during that ordeal. My father, the scion of one of the richest families in the entire district, started as a railway coolie carting coal in wheel-barrows at eight annas a day. He rebuilt his life and retired as a very senior Govt official. Same is the story of millions of others affected by the Partition. And yet, not once did my parents teach us to hate Muslims. All they said that it was a tragedy triggered by politicians, but foolishly gulped by gullible ordinary people who ended up paying the price.

Who paid the price for the communal polarization in Punjab in the 1980s, or in the Babri Masjid riots and the Gujarat carnage of 2002? Surely, in the 21^st Century India, we the people cannot fall prey to the games politicians play for their own selfish ends. Let me ask another question. Why is it that you would find hardly any religious bigot among all those actually suffered during Partition or other upheavals? Why most of the Hindutva zealots are from those States, which were not directly affected? For them whipping communal frenzy is more a chauvinistic bravado than any genuine religiosity. They seem to seek an adrenalin rush from a communal riot as tamashbeen, as if it were a WWF fight.

Finally, as to the question why I should not be unduly apprehensive since I did not see mayhem on the streets. Such a complacent attitude can be disastrous. The British realized it in 1857 when the bubble burst, or the entire Indian subcontinent when it was overtaken by communal frenzy in 1947, and which madness culminated in Gandhi Ji’s assassination. Early in 1984, did we foresee the traumatic events that would follow later that year? It was ultimately the exceptional maturity and wisdom of the Sikh community that brought back Punjab from the brink, and saved our Nation from unraveling.

Let us not, therefore, forget the lessons from History. Communal and caste polarization is a clear and present danger, which is recklessly being fanned by politicians. There is immense pent up anger and frustration not just because of the hate-mongering environment, but also from real problems of unemployment and farm distress.  It is like a tinder box, which even a small spark can set off. Mayhem on the streets will surely follow. It is imperative that we citizens emphatically defeat the selfish politicians’ divisive agenda. 

BETTER TO BE SAFE THAN SORRY.

Why Modi Ji’s Deflection to External Security is Disingenuous

BJP claims that the result of this election is a foregone conclusion, and it will beat its 2014 record. It argues that Modi Ji has performed exceptionally well on all fronts – be it economy, job creation, agricultural and industrial growth, social welfare schemes, communal harmony, foreign policy or security. So, where is the doubt?

If that were so, then why BJP and Modi Ji himself are in panic mode? Why the anxiety to deflect the focus from actual performance to Nehruvian era follies and National security? Why the repeated brazen and disgraceful violations of the Model Code (NaMo channel, NaMo movie, Modi’s Army etc), which a pusillanimous EC is unwilling to stop?

Even their focus on National security is deceitful because security is not confined only to the external dimension. In fact, the INTERNAL DIMENSION of security is far more important, since only internal stability and cohesion can provide the strong foundation to boost National strength in the external dimension.

Even a cursory analysis of the internal dimension will show that Modi Ji’s performance has been dismal. Thus, Jumlebaji becomes essential to divert attention.

I am pasting below a graphic showing various elements in the Internal Dimension of the comprehensive National Security Paradigm presented in my book “Citizens and Soldiers Keeping India’s Tryst with Destiny”. There is ample statistical and anecdotal evidence in my book on each of those elements, which substantiates my contention that the performance of the NDA Govt in the past five years has been poor. Even a layperson will come to the same conclusion by assessing Modi Ji’s performance on all those elements shown in the graphic.

ALL PATRIOTIC AND ENLIGHTENED CITIZENS MUST THEREFORE ANALYZE INDEPENDENTLY AND VOTE ACCORDINGLY

HOLISTIC FRAMEWORK OF NATIONAL SECURITY 

THE INTERNAL DIMENSION OF CORE STRENGTH & COHESIVENESS 

The Silence of the Lambs

The Silence of the Lambs

I am NOT as shocked by Yogi Adityanath’s outrageous dubbing of the Indian Army as “Modi Ji ki Sena”, as I am by the amoral and inexcusable silence of Modi-Bhakts within the Veterans community over this abomination. Are they so indoctrinated and steeped in his Bhakti that they have betrayed their allegiance to the Armed Forces, and indeed to the Constitution itself? Or, are they so fearful of Modi Ji that they have chosen to condone yet another among numerous blows to the honour and dignity of Faujis inflicted by him, his Raksha Mantri, and several other Chowkidars in the BJP hierarchy?

It is perfectly legitimate for Veterans to have personal views either in favour of Modi Ji and the BJP, or against them, after carrying out an objective analysis of their policies and performance. However, what is galling and betrays a lack of moral courage, is when they remain silent about their various misdeeds, especially against the Armed Forces, while at the same pouring scorn and ridiculing the Opposition at every opportunity.

Sadly, it is not just the Indian polity, but even a glorious, apolitical and secular institution such as the Armed Forces that have been polarized sharply in this highly vitiated electoral battle. This is dangerous. It will leave a lasting impact on this institution, which will be highly detrimental for the Nation’s security. Regrettably, the BJP, in its electoral desperation, is being very reckless in this regard.    

The Choice in 2019 Elections

A feeling of desperation and panic is clearly palpable in the BJP. One can sense it in the shrill outbursts of their spokespersons on TV, the angry rants from their trolls and Bhakts on social media, and the repeated resort to “what about…” of the Congress era dating back to Nehru, when they are asked about failures of the Modi regime.   

It also manifests in the increasing resort to gimmickry (e.g. main bhi chowkidar), abusive name-calling of the disgusting sadak-chhap variety, high-decibel pseudo-Nationalism, and dubbing all who question Modi as anti-National and Pakistani agents.  

Chowkidar Modiji himself is leading this muscular response, fully aware that constant harping on National security, Balakot, ASAT etc alone can divert attention of the voters from the acute farm distress and unemployment problems, as well as the uncomfortable questions about various scams, including Rafale.   

BJP has cleverly intimidated the visual and print media into brazenly toeing its line. So, Nationalism is stoked and people’s problems are sidetracked. Likewise, the RSS and BJP have succeeded in dousing the clamour for the unfulfilled Ram Mandir promise, on which emotive issue it rose to power. It has thus been able to control the narrative substantially.

But, do TV debates and social media interactions really sway voters significantly in this age of 24/7 media bombardment? People’s minds are already made up, and the shouting bouts on TV serve only as amusement. Social media interactions on the other hand have become too toxic even between family and friends.

Elections are decided not by the urban middle class, but by millions of poor and under-privileged people, for whom everyday existence is a struggle. So, will the poor farmers overburdened with unpaid loans, or millions of unemployed youth really feel ecstatic and enthused when Modiji talks about his great achievements in Balakot and the ASAT launch? It might stir up their patriotic fervour for a few moments, but soon their hopeless situation in the ‘real world’ would engulf them again.

The Nation also carries deep scars on its psyche due to polarizing hate-mongering by the rioting, lynching and moral-policing cadres of various outfits under RSS tutelage.  Countless victims as well as millions of passive, but outraged observers too will now have an opportunity to give their verdict as to what sort of a Nation and society they want.  

I therefore feel this is going to be a landmark watershed election. Do we want a pluralist, secular and equitable society that our Constitution guarantees, or do we want a rabid majoritarian polity, an ever-increasing gap between the rich and poor, where the rich and the powerful subvert the rule of law and all institutions that are supposed to protect individual rights and dignity?

I BELIEVE THE CHOICE IS CLEAR.

State of Defence Preparedness

ASAT is indeed a technological milestone. Geopolitically too, it sends a signal worldwide.

It was inevitable that Chowkidar Modiji, with his penchant for usurping credit, would unabashedly grab Media Headlines, the EC's Model Code of Conduct notwithstanding.

But, despite all the hoopla and boasts about Modiji's so-called "muscular" approach to National security, almost all Strategic thinkers and experts point out the following serious failures or deficiencies on his watch.

1. Modiji ceded strategic space to Xi at Wuhan and gave too many concessions, without any matching response. China's intransigence on Masood Azhar, opposing our entry into NSG, and its continuing inflexibility on the border issue, especially on Arunachal go to show that Xi outsmarted him. 

2. Pakistan continued to sponsor terrorism in J&K despite Modiji's overtures to Nawaz Sharif. Pathankot, Uri, Amarnath Yatra, Srinagar etc showed that we were caught napping and reacted quite haphazardly. 

3. Despite the surgical strikes of 2016, Pakistan's terror sponsorship in J&K only increased and culminated in the Pulwama carnage. 

4. If Balakot was meant to send a signal, Pak signalled back with greater alacrity by sending its fighters across the LoC. We lost a MiG unfortunately, and even the episode of Pak returning our pilot let Pak derive great mileage in the eyes of the world. 

5. To the world, this exchange also showed the gaps and limitations of our so-called conventional edge over Pak, in air power at least. 

6. Conventional wisdom dictates that one should never boast if one has no intention or capability of following through. So, why thunder to a cheering electoral audience, "Ghar main ghus kar marenge", when a single message from Trump (which any strategy expert would tell you was bound to come) leads you to simmer down and back off like a "bheegi billi". 

7. There have been very serious Intelligence lapses over past four years, including the recent smuggled RDX used for Pulwama carnage. Yet, NO accountability has been fixed. It seems Doval is indispensable for Modiji, not for his primary Intelligence and National security duties, but for other 'political' purposes.

8. Modiji's policy on Defence is oriented more for Global consumption, and image-building abroad, than upon strengthening our Defence forces at home, which have very critical gaps in modernization and capacity-building.

9. These gaps have actually INCREASED on his watch with the Defence budget being reduced progressively in real terms over past four years. 

10. The much-delayed restructuring and reforms recommended by a host of committees like K Subhramanian's KRC, the GoM, and Naresh Chandra Committee have been put on the back-burner. Another very dangerous trend is the politicization of the Armed Forces, especially in hand-picking pliable officers for senior positions who will not question the Netas and Babus. 

11. It has been the misfortune of our Defence Forces that they have invariably gone into battle ill-clad (1962) and ill-equipped as compared to our adversaries. Yet, they have always carried the day with their valour, though at a terrible cost to lives and limbs. It is acknowledged worldwide, "it is the man behind the gun that matters". And yet, Modiji's RM, Chowkidar Seetharaman seems hell-bent on wrecking the morale and self-esteem of our soldiers in her numerous policies - all of which have gone against Faujis vis a vis civilian Babus and CAPFs. It is widely believed among the Defence personnel that she has the tacit approval of Modiji and Jaitley, both of whom are not favourably disposed to Faujis for various reasons. 

12. With all of the above, the damage to the Armed Forces in terms of HDM, defence modernization, infrastructure and morale is far too serious to ignore. The public, which is very empathetic and supportive, is unfortunately not aware of all this. Since all citizens are stakeholders in National security, they MUST RAISE THEIR VOICE, and call upon the Govt to arrest, and reverse this dangerous slide. Surely, the Nation cannot afford another 1962 like debacle.

AG Recovers the “Stolen” Rafale File Overnight

If it were not a very serious matter of National security, all citizens would have laughed out loud at the farce being enacted in the Supreme Court since last week. The Attorney General argued before the SC that the Petitioners could not cite the Rafale documents published in The Hindu article, as those were from the Secret file that had been stolen from the Ministry of Defence (MoD). When questioned, he nonchalantly stated that an internal investigation was on, but no FIR had been lodged. Quite aghast, the Chief Justice directed him to file details of the loss and the actions taken at the next hearing.

Print and visual media, in obsequiousness to the Govt’s sensitivities, reported this in an uncharacteristically toned down matter of fact manner even though it was a bombshell, given that the Secret file pertained to the scam-tainted Rafale deal. Social media however went berserk, with alarmed citizens questioning how an ultra-sensitive Secret file could go missing from the MoD. Coming soon after the massive intelligence failure that led to the Pulwama carnage, people questioned the cavalier manner in which the Govt was treating National security. Irate citizens called for action against the Defence Secretary as the head of MoD, and the resignation of the RM.

Obviously, there was consternation in the Govt and Party circles. But, lo and behold, the very next day the AG discovered that the file was NOT STOLEN after all. It had merely been photocopied and leaked to The Hindu. As if photocopying of a Secret MoD document was any less serious or alarming a crime. It seemed as if the AG was mocking the SC Bench, and belittling the intelligence of the learned Judges.

Notwithstanding his advanced age, it is unlikely that a seasoned legal eagle like the AG would have committed a faux pas. Apparently, bumbling bureaucrats in the MoD have led him up the gum tree with their shoddy efforts to cover the tracks, primarily to save their Master, Modi Ji from the burgeoning Rafale scandal. It will be interesting to see if the Bench takes serious umbrage at this volte face. This is even more necessary since the Bench is already adjudicating the far more serious issue of the Govt misleading the Court with an unsigned affidavit that had several false and inaccurate statements.

Even to the most ardent BJP supporters it will be clear that there is much more to it than meets the eye. With its shoddy handling of the Rafale issue, the Govt has indeed strengthened the suspicions of even unbiased observers. It is an acknowledged axiom that the numerous attempts to cover up an original crime end up being far more lethal. Perhaps, the Modi Govt could have learnt a lesson from Dirty Dick’s fate in the infamous Watergate scandal.

NSA Overseeing Military Operations

It is outright bizarre that the NSA is overseeing active military operations and the Service Chiefs report to him. True,entrust that he has the status of MoS but the PM's decision to trust him rather than Service Chiefs during operations is absurd.

He has no expertise in military warfare, in which the Service Chiefs have 40 years of intense training, combat experience, and professional handling of such a large force. For a person who is not adept at his own job, and on whose watch so many intelligence failures and terror strikes (even as recently as Pulwama), it is inexplicable why would the PM put him in overall charge during such a critical time.

THE TIDE IS TURNING

I am both, happy as well as sad at the UP and Bihar bye-poll results. Close on the heels of Rajasthan and MP bye-polls; it is a clear signal that the tide is beginning to turn. I am happy because these results hopefully would dissipate BJP’s hubris, deflate its arrogance, and drive it towards introspection and course-correction.

Its rant that this was due to an unholy alliance between SP and BSP is ludicrous; given that it itself is allied with the brazenly anti-national PDP in J&K, and with regional parties in Nagaland and Tripura, which have had a track-record of separatist demands.

At the same time I am sad too because BJP has been a terrible let-down, given that it was given a massive mandate. With its absolute majority it was not encumbered with coalition constraints as the UPA was. It boasted of being a ‘party with a difference’ and was expected to deliver. Not only has it failed miserably to meet peoples’ expectations, it even shot itself in the foot with its hare-brained demonetization fiasco and shoddy implementation of GST.

Its biggest mistake has been its Hindutva agenda. Most people are alarmed at its divisive politics and hyper-Nationalism, due to which the Nation was let aghast with crisis-a-day headlines; such as lynching, moral-policing, love-jihad, Padmavat drama, polarizing and shameful utterances (e.g. against Jawans) as well as uncouth and arrogant behavior of its leaders.

Brazen contravention of democratic norms and weakening of institutions too have shocked people. Spate of recent scandals and signs of palace intrigues have been marring its credibility. The sense of optimism among the people after its victory has given way to despondency, despair and foreboding.

I am also unhappy because the alternative too does not seem promising, given the lack of a strong, credible opposition. BJP takes refuge behind the TINA (there is no alternative) factor, but that only leads to arrogance and complacency, as has been the Nation’s experience in the past. If it unequivocally sheds the Hindutva plank, and focuses only on an inclusive, pluralist and developmental agenda, it might retrieve some lost ground.   

“The Last Straw….”

The shameful and shocking brutal action of the police against aged veterans and Veer Naris at Jantar Mantar is virtually “the last straw” in the series of humiliating and grossly unjust actions of the Govt against the entire veterans’ fraternity, which has left it anguished and incensed. Serving Armed Forces personnel too are bristling at the treatment meted out to their revered elders, and dismayed at the prospect of facing similar humiliation upon their own retirement. Armed Forces personnel, serving as well as retired, had overwhelmingly voted for the Ruling party, enthused by the promises made by the PM at Rewari. Sadly, the disillusionment is complete due to not just the charade of a truncated OROP, but also due to the long list of injustices, such as diminution in status vis a vis other services, cadre review, Pay Commission anomalies, NFU, and disparities in allowances etc. Tasks thrust upon soldiers, such as laying yoga mats on Rajpath, constructing pontoon bridge and stage for a quasi-religious organization, cleaning up high altitude tourism spots, and constructing railway footbridges, too have been causing heartburn and murmurs why the military leadership does not insulate them from such demeaning orders. The entire gamut of issues seems to be a concerted assault on our ‘izzat’ and ‘iqbal’, orchestrated by an ill-willed bureaucracy, and egged on by an uncaring political class.

The ‘last straw’ perhaps represents our ‘last chance’ to proactively defend our honour. If we do not do so now and allow our struggle to be squashed by the Govt’s coercive, strong-arm tactics, then it will be impossible to mobilize again. We can then bid good-bye to all our aspirations. Moreover, the Neta-Babu combine would then be emboldened to further escalate our denigration. I had anticipated precisely the same scenario in my book, “Operation Jantar Mantar” that peaceful, disciplined protests would eventually be disrupted with insensitive and brutish force. With our collective wisdom we have to find new innovative means of fighting for our cause, over and above the ongoing legal avenues and negotiations.

We need to meet this challenge by setting aside personal egos and respective political persuasions and close ranks. It is true that our ethos is to remain apolitical; but it does not mean passive neutrality. If the current dispensation has belied the promises made, in letter and spirit, then it must be opposed. Its votaries might cite 50 years of inaction by the opposing party, but it has been punished in the last election. This plea cannot be allowed as an alibi for the Ruling combine’s breach of faith. I also do not subscribe to the TINA (there is no alternative) argument. The Congress Govts thrived for over 50 years using the same ploy, but now our enlightened polity must not allow the Ruling dispensation to exploit it. I have full faith that this country of 130 billion people will throw up new leaders who can be better trusted to deliver. By training and ethos we have always kept the Nation’s interest ahead of our own. But now the question is of our own ‘izzat’ and ‘iqbal’. If we cannot defend our own honour, how can we be expected to defend that of the Nation?        

Righteous War - Flawed Strategy - Shoddy Execution

Civility in public discourse has become a rarity and even eminent people have been trading profanities unabashedly, as seen in the recent US elections. In today's sharply polarized environment this piece on demonetization too would elicit very contrasting reactions from Modi-bhakts and Modi-baiters, who are more likely to view it through their subjective, ideological  prisms. Due to our set ideas most of us tend to see everything in absolute terms - as purely white or black (pun unintended), while in the real world there are only varying shades of grey.  

Corruption is a worldwide scourge and no country is immune from it. While in developing countries the common folk face it in everyday life, in developed economies it has been finessed, and institutionalized at the highest political and corporate levels. One major difference however is that when scandals erupt in developed countries the culprits, howsoever high and mighty, are not spared, whereas in Third World countries the big fish always get away scot-free.  

That the war against corruption and its byproduct black money is 'righteous' is beyond dispute. All governments regardless of party affiliations claim to wage it, presumably sincerely, but with little or no success. The overarching 'intent' of the Govt's demonetization move per se  is laudable. However the apparent aim-plus - that of reaping political dividends, has  confounded the timing and seriously flawed its execution. To determine whether demonetization would indeed solve the problem of black money and reduce corruption, we need to view these terms in the correct perspective.   

Black money is unaccounted money that ought to have been taxed. It is generated by evading taxes on income acquired through legitimate means, as well as through blatantly criminal activities and bribes.  Thus, one could characterize the former as being less black than the latter. But is it cash alone? If it were to be hoarded in the form of real estate, gold, pricey antiques,  luxury cars, yachts etc, it would still be out of the tax net illegally, and thus unaccounted. 

Another misnomer is about cash within and outside the banking system. If one keeps large amounts of cash at home, for whatever reason, but has accounted for it and paid taxes, it does not amount to black money. Likewise, all money in bank accounts does not automatically qualify as white money, if it is not accounted for in tax returns. Further, if one were to avoid paying taxes through devious or ingenious means, would such cash holdings be strictly white? Donald Trump has not paid any Federal Income Tax for many years. It is a moot point if all of his billions are legit.   

Nowhere in the world has a direct co-relation been empirically established between cash, both inside or outside the banking system, and tax evasion. With such a plethora of sources that generate black money, there could not have been a single, one size fits all solution. It would require a series of measures, launched in lock-step fashion as part of a coherent and coordinated campaign. But was demonetization the ideal weapon, given its enormous cost and overwhelming logistics? Would it provide optimal results against all the different sources of black money? Let us analyze briefly.

• Evasion of corporate taxes by big business houses and multinational firms is done through mechanisms such as transfer pricing, intra-firm transfers to shell companies in tax havens, round-tripping etc. Demonetization would not affect such practices. 
• It would also not affect personal income taxes of corporate honchos; they do not receive salary and bonuses in cash. Most would have stashed their unaccounted wealth in foreign tax havens. In any case those in the ilk of Vijay Mallya have easier ways of living in luxury, by defaulting on the astronomical loans given by public sector banks without due diligence. 
• Likewise most politicians, bureaucrats, and professionals too would have stashed away their ill-gotten wealth abroad, away from the reach of the tax-man. 
• A substantial percentage of black-money lies converted into real-estate, gold and other assets, which demonetization cannot address, and would require separate detection and punitive measures.
• It would certainly affect cash transactions in satta, hawala, drugs, weapons, counterfeiting and other illicit activities. However, it is not beyond the devious capabilities of the corrupt to convert substantial portion of their black money via millions of Jan Dhan accounts and similar third party transactions, by keeping them below the announced threshold. Govt has warned that such transactions would be monitored and prosecuted. But it begs the question that if our IT and other vigilance agencies were indeed so capable, and sincere, about monitoring millions of such accounts, then how has black money risen to such monstrous proportions in the first place? There would be some token prosecutions, but the police/raid raj would would generate new black money of its own. As an aside, millions of poor Jan Dhan account holders, who have been eagerly waiting for their promised 15 lacs, could hardly be blamed for becoming the conduit, to earn few hundreds in commissions.  
• Black money is the biggest contributor to the poll financing of ALL political parties. The ill-prepared, hasty and untimely (sowing season) launch is strongly indicative of the political aim-plus of this move. Opposition parties have been upstaged ahead of three vital assembly polls. Not only their poll financing has been put out of gear, the propaganda value of dubbing their protests as "pro-black money," can be enormous.     

I am sure the powers-that-be must have done an in-depth cost-benefit analysis before launching this measure. Even if we ignore its legal implication (each currency note carries RBI Governor's solemn promise to pay the bearer), it involved the sudden withdrawal of almost 85% of the total value of the currency in circulation.  It was also imperative to provide the shortest possible window for note replacement, or else the black-money holders would render the exercise futile. 

They would have, I presume, taken into account the enormous costs of printing new notes, costs and logistics of transporting them to the remotest corners of our huge country and the monumental task of actual replacement, manually as well as through ATMs - the latter only after re-calibration. And during all this time our economy - so preponderantly dependent upon cash transactions - was supposed to carry on business as usual.

And for all these costs, what benefits are likely to accrue? While some black money would go out of the parallel economy, a substantial amount of unaccounted wealth would still be out-of-reach as discussed above. Separate measures would need to be taken to monitor, detect and recover unaccounted wealth from those sources. Hence, may one ask, why could not those measures be taken first, rather than carpet-bombing the entire economy with demonetization? It would be evident to everyone that it has resulted in widespread collateral damage, and achieved only sub-optimal gains. It makes as little sense as Bush's advisers resorting to the monstrous 15000 lb daisy-cutter bombs in Tora Bora mountains to get Osama and his hordes, who merrily escaped to safe havens in Pakistan. 

This measure was also intended to counter terror-funding since enormous amounts of counterfeit currency is being injected from Pakistan. That is indeed a major benefit, at least in the near-term, till such time ISI is able to replicate the safety features in the new notes. In this case too, would it not have been more cost-effective for our much-vaunted, intelligence agencies to undertake more effective steps for physical interception of such currency, as well as electronic monitoring and disruption of the hawala conduits? 

The chaotic scenes witnessed in the past few days, and the Govt's piecemeal, band-aid responses indicate that neither this mammoth exercise had been thought through in depth, nor any contingency planning was done. In the face of growing public resentment Govt is taking knee-jerk actions. All such relaxations are increasing the window of opportunity for the corrupt and thus reducing the efficacy of this ultra-expensive and disruptive measure. The Govt is clearly caught between a rock and a hard place.  

It is obvious that the PM's  advisers have let him down by presenting an ill-conceived plan without due analysis, and even more so by shoddy execution. A frantic fire-fighting operation is now on to somehow muddle through the chaos with instant fixes. On the political front, patriotism of the hapless citizens is being invoked, and voices of protest are being drowned by dubbing them anti-national and pro-corrupt.    

Can’t Convince? – Then Confound the Issue

The ugly fracas at JNU has opened up a Pandora’s Box, and given all political parties an opportunity to play, what they excel at – dirty politics. Much to the disappointment of Armed Forces personnel, the fracas has pushed the emotive issue of the tragic demise of L/Nk Hanamanthappa and his nine comrades into the background. But, it didn’t stop the self-anointed arbiters of “patriotism” from brazenly exploiting his heroic struggle against death, to decry the “lack of patriotism” of rival political parties. Even that insufferable loudmouth, Arnab Goswami outdid himself by shamelessly using his name to shout down panelists on his “Noise-Hour” programme.

Anti-national slogans by the demonstrators have to be condemned unequivocally. The actual perpetrators must be identified, their antecedents made public and appropriate action taken against them; no question about it. All political parties have in fact demanded the same, quite unambiguously.  But, the blatant attempt of the Ruling party and its ideological fraternity to deliberately confound the issue, is most disturbing.

It is reprehensible that they have used the highly objectionable slogans of a small group as a pretext to question the patriotism of all students and faculty, and tar the entire institution. Foisting sedition charges on Kanhaiya Kumar, despite his not shouting even a single anti-national slogan in the videos, merely because he was decrying the HRD Minister and the Govt on various issues, is bound to boomerang. Its cadres are using abusive language and violence against those protesting ham-handed actions of the Mighty State, which smacks of unbridled authoritarianism.

The ploy of “giving the dog a bad name and shooting it” is not new. It has been used all through the ages to neutralize those deemed inimical by the Ruling Elite. It is not confined to absolute monarchies, dictators and fascist regimes alone. Even democracies have used it, though with more finesse. J Edgar Hoover’s crusade against commies, or the suppression of anti-VietNam war groups in USA, and our own excesses during the Emergency are some examples.

However, history also shows that none of those regimes survived for long and people, howsoever weak they might have been, have prevailed ultimately. Just as the trite saying “nothing succeeds like success,” it can also be said, “nothing backfires like excess.” 

There are several signs that the Ruling party is treading dangerously in that direction. It has brazenly foisted own people in FTII, Censor Board, Think-tanks, universities and bodies that decide on curricula and textbooks. It has not reined in its leaders from making highly inflammatory statements, and it has drowned out voices that sought to protest intolerance. It has stubbornly refused action against senior leaders facing serious corruption charges and has misused the office of Governors. In fact it is doing all those things that it had accused the Congress regimes of, and for which they were punished by the people. It would be a pity if the Ruling party were to meet the same fate.   

Farewell – My Countrymen

Farewell my countrymen, may you ever prosper.

Am so grateful for your prayers, though in vain;

But do not despair;

Am much better off in my new domain.

Better to go in a blaze of glory, serving the Motherland;

Than end up a vegetable; a burden on all.

Nor did I fancy retiring, with struggles galore,

Seeing the woeful plight of veterans,

Agitating valiantly for our rights and honour.

Grateful too for the PM’s gracious visit,

Despite his onerous chores.

Regret couldn’t stand up and salute,

And apologize for the blushes caused,

In surviving his tributes to us - the fallen.

Those who told him, ‘there is no hope’,

Should have known better.

Comrades would dig even with bare hands

Till the last remains are found.

I humbly urge the powers that be, follow the Global norm,

Don’t sound “the last post” till one is actually gone.

Soldiers yearn for decorations and gallantry awards,

Fills them and their ‘paltan’ with pride.

And if one has to go,

What better way than draped in Tricolour.

Having received immense love and adulation,

There’s nothing more I can ask for.

My only regret is, had I known what awaits me,

Would’ve bid my family a more befitting farewell.  

Where I am, I’m beyond needs or pain.

But not so with the dear ones I leave behind.

I request that their dues be promptly paid,

Whatever little our poor country can afford.

My wife is a simple, uneducated village lady,

Who knows not the intricacies of Babudom.

My daughter, too young to comprehend what’s happened,

Will cry out when with hunger she’s overcome.

Please be aware their pain will torment me, 

Regardless, wherever I am.

I urge you therefore, my dear countrymen,

Do not let an insensitive and uncaring system

Compound the miseries of the kin of martyrs,

That regularly turn up in flag-draped coffins.