State of Defence Preparedness

ASAT is indeed a technological milestone. Geopolitically too, it sends a signal worldwide.

It was inevitable that Chowkidar Modiji, with his penchant for usurping credit, would unabashedly grab Media Headlines, the EC's Model Code of Conduct notwithstanding.

But, despite all the hoopla and boasts about Modiji's so-called "muscular" approach to National security, almost all Strategic thinkers and experts point out the following serious failures or deficiencies on his watch.

1. Modiji ceded strategic space to Xi at Wuhan and gave too many concessions, without any matching response. China's intransigence on Masood Azhar, opposing our entry into NSG, and its continuing inflexibility on the border issue, especially on Arunachal go to show that Xi outsmarted him. 

2. Pakistan continued to sponsor terrorism in J&K despite Modiji's overtures to Nawaz Sharif. Pathankot, Uri, Amarnath Yatra, Srinagar etc showed that we were caught napping and reacted quite haphazardly. 

3. Despite the surgical strikes of 2016, Pakistan's terror sponsorship in J&K only increased and culminated in the Pulwama carnage. 

4. If Balakot was meant to send a signal, Pak signalled back with greater alacrity by sending its fighters across the LoC. We lost a MiG unfortunately, and even the episode of Pak returning our pilot let Pak derive great mileage in the eyes of the world. 

5. To the world, this exchange also showed the gaps and limitations of our so-called conventional edge over Pak, in air power at least. 

6. Conventional wisdom dictates that one should never boast if one has no intention or capability of following through. So, why thunder to a cheering electoral audience, "Ghar main ghus kar marenge", when a single message from Trump (which any strategy expert would tell you was bound to come) leads you to simmer down and back off like a "bheegi billi". 

7. There have been very serious Intelligence lapses over past four years, including the recent smuggled RDX used for Pulwama carnage. Yet, NO accountability has been fixed. It seems Doval is indispensable for Modiji, not for his primary Intelligence and National security duties, but for other 'political' purposes.

8. Modiji's policy on Defence is oriented more for Global consumption, and image-building abroad, than upon strengthening our Defence forces at home, which have very critical gaps in modernization and capacity-building.

9. These gaps have actually INCREASED on his watch with the Defence budget being reduced progressively in real terms over past four years. 

10. The much-delayed restructuring and reforms recommended by a host of committees like K Subhramanian's KRC, the GoM, and Naresh Chandra Committee have been put on the back-burner. Another very dangerous trend is the politicization of the Armed Forces, especially in hand-picking pliable officers for senior positions who will not question the Netas and Babus. 

11. It has been the misfortune of our Defence Forces that they have invariably gone into battle ill-clad (1962) and ill-equipped as compared to our adversaries. Yet, they have always carried the day with their valour, though at a terrible cost to lives and limbs. It is acknowledged worldwide, "it is the man behind the gun that matters". And yet, Modiji's RM, Chowkidar Seetharaman seems hell-bent on wrecking the morale and self-esteem of our soldiers in her numerous policies - all of which have gone against Faujis vis a vis civilian Babus and CAPFs. It is widely believed among the Defence personnel that she has the tacit approval of Modiji and Jaitley, both of whom are not favourably disposed to Faujis for various reasons. 

12. With all of the above, the damage to the Armed Forces in terms of HDM, defence modernization, infrastructure and morale is far too serious to ignore. The public, which is very empathetic and supportive, is unfortunately not aware of all this. Since all citizens are stakeholders in National security, they MUST RAISE THEIR VOICE, and call upon the Govt to arrest, and reverse this dangerous slide. Surely, the Nation cannot afford another 1962 like debacle.

Outrageous and Irresponsible Media Coverage

What passes as Media debate on many TV channels is nothing but a farce, a tamasha. Participants shout and hurl insults at each other and the anchors goad them on, since such media circus apparently boosts TRPs. Many anchors behave like all-knowing experts and ram their own opinions and agenda. They seem to be a law unto themselves, smug in the mistaken belief that they can make or break reputations.

Outrageous coverage of the Pathankot attack has again highlighted that media has learnt nothing from its ineptness during the 26/11 terror strike.  A case in point is Arnab Goswami of Times Now, unarguably the most infuriating among anchors, whose boastful rants and verbal diarrhea are insufferable. Day after day he sought to badger Pakistani experts on his program to admit that the terrorists were from Pakistan. What for? If Musharraf and the Pakistani Govt could brazenly deny Osama bin Laden’s presence, did Arnab believe his verbal volleys will spook them into admitting the same? Instead, his cocky taunts provoked the Pakistanis to repeatedly ridicule our tardy response on ground, and the loss of seven precious lives in neutralizing the terrorists.  

Why should anchors such as Arnab Goswami provide a platform to Pakistanis to pour scorn on our Armed Forces? How demoralizing and painful it is for the Forces to be spoken of so humiliatingly by Pakistanis on Indian TV, much to the glee of their compatriots back home!  The valiant soldiers, who paid with their lives and limb for the bungling by the HM-NSA duo, and the Indian Armed Forces as a whole, were undeservedly exposed to ridicule by the stupidity of such conceited anchors.

It is high time that TV news channels are directed to rein in their errant anchors and news reporters. Many of them behave like armchair specialists, rather than just reporting. Often reporters interfere with the ongoing operation or the subsequent search and rescue, by aggressively pestering the personnel with their pesky questions. As everywhere else in the world, reporters should be strictly kept at a distance along with the general public. They must not be allowed to come in the way, or contaminate the spots where forensic evidence is yet to be gathered. 

Bungling and NOT Bad Luck

The entire Nation mourns the martyrdom of seven valiant soldiers who died fighting with utmost courage and fortitude. They ended up paying with their lives, NOT BECAUSE OF “THEIR BAD LUCK,” but for lapses and self-serving egotism right up the hierarchy. The HM-NSA duo, driven by hubris and turf considerations, (mis)applied distantly-located NSG, rather than utilizing battle-hardened troops right next door, which as per extant SOPs are always earmarked and undertake frequent rehearsals.  

 Will those responsible for this national embarrassment be held accountable? Oh No!  In the prevailing culture of scant public morality that is too much to ask. It’s true, heads did roll in the aftermath of 26/11, but they did not leave on their own volition; they were forced out kicking and screaming. Will that happen this time? Not likely.

Were it not for the tragic loss of valuable lives, one could have dubbed the overall response at the top echelons, bumbling and comical. The irony of Rajnath Singh and even the FM, Jaitley waxing eloquent on the airbase attack, with Parrikkar and Sushma Swaraj almost silent, despite the military and diplomatic implications being their domain, is not lost to observers at home and abroad. There are several troubling questions and signs, which have been extensively highlighted. The nefarious politician-smuggler-police nexus in Punjab has rendered the border porous. ISI is exploiting the growing disaffection among veterans and serving soldiers on a host of issues such as pay, pensions, working conditions, and the plight of Veer Naris and disabled soldiers. Soldiers are being increasingly deployed for sundry tasks (now reportedly for cleaning up the Ganges) for which the Civil Administration is well-equipped. This is at the expense of their training and well-earned respite after field area deployments.

Everyone knows where the problems lie, and what the solutions are. There is no dearth of expert committee reports. For instance, the Subrahmanyam and the Naresh Chandra committees among others had made very sound recommendations on the National Security apparatus, and the entire gamut of issues relating to multiagency coordination of intelligence and operations. But again the bureaucracy succeeded in stalling them, and let their parochial interests triumph over National Security. What’s the point of wasting so much time, effort and expense on such committees if they are ultimately to be consigned to cold storage.

It is time for the Nation to say, “Enough is enough.” Let this terror strike be a wake-up call. It is high time the PM shows firmness and resolve to bring some tangible coherence in policies and actions at the top. He has expended a lot of political capital on his overture to Nawaz Sharif, which this terror attack has eroded substantially. He can retrieve it somewhat by being visibly decisive and strong in putting the house in order, and not appear to be dithering as his predecessor.

Pathankot Attack – Some Troubling Questions

Even as I write this, the operation to neutralize Pakistani terrorists and to sanitize Pathankot Airbase is still on, although ironically the Home Minister had announced its “success” over 12 hours back. His singing the all-too-familiar paeans to the “brave jawans” and promising a “muh tor jawab,” were not-so-subtle, self-laudatory signals to the Nation that a catastrophe had been averted under his watch, since both the PM and RM were away. In distant Bengaluru, the PM too briefly acknowledged their valour and then resumed extolling the virtues of Yoga.  However, the RM was silent, perhaps self-effacingly, despite most forces involved being his responsibility.  

Do I sound cynical and angry? You bet; I am. To any soldier, serving or retired loss of lives cuts too close. It is personal. Why? Because all of us have seen at very close quarters what it really means for the grieving family and to the unit. Perfunctory lip-service by Netas on such occasions actually infuriates, rather than provide solace. Because, by now we all know how little the soldiers’ sacrifices and hardships mean to the Netas and Babus alike. Haven’t we all seen how the DESW actually torments the NOK and ESM, rather than work for their welfare? Is there a more glaring spectacle for the Nation’s conscience to behold, than the Govt ignoring the ESM’s protest at Jantar Mantar for the past 200 days? (Continued…..  For the complete post, click the link below to my Blog).   

Except for raising some glaring inconsistencies, I will not cover any operational aspects for obvious reasons. Those would certainly be examined and analyzed in depth by the units and formations concerned once the dust settles down. Nonetheless, the following points will seem odd even to any casual observer:

•    If indeed there was an intelligence alert, how did heavily armed terrorists sneak in through the same route of ingress as in the recent Dina Nagar attack?
•         How did they manage to sneak in, when this sector is supposed to be closely monitored, given that it is a known route of drug smugglers?
•         To what extent the politician-police-drug smuggler nexus leave this sector vulnerable to their ingress?
•        How was the SSP travelling in an expensive SUV reportedly with a jeweller, without his usual escort paraphernalia, in a remote area in the dead of night?
•        The terrorists reportedly homed on to the drain, which was a known vulnerable point, to enter the Airbase. Why was it not under greater surveillance, given that there was already an intelligence alert?   

I want to focus more upon the apparent ad-hocism in the Govt’s policy towards Pakistan and the terrorism that emanates from it. This on-now and off-now policy is quite perplexing, especially to the soldiers at the fore-front of this fight. Politicians on both sides of the political divide are squarely to blame. Their rhetoric, whether as the Ruling party or Opposition, is utterly irresponsible.

So, if Sushma Swaraj whilst in Opposition taunts that Jawans should bring 10 heads for every soldier decapitated, as the EAM she has to sing a different tune when the PM decides to launch his charm offensive.  Likewise, Sharm-el-Sheik was an inexcusable blunder by Manmohan Singh, but PM Modi’s sudden detour to Lahore and that too within just weeks of thundering that “terrorism and talks can’t go together” is supposed to be an “innovative out-of-the-box” diplomatic coup.

Politicians’ pre-election rhetoric is even more irresponsible. Whether it were the Lok Sabha polls or the recent elections in Bihar, there were outrageous statements by Netas, which were very polarizing and inflammatory and caused immense harm to our social fabric. The biggest problem with rhetoric is that while it is easy to scale up, it is very difficult to tone it down, and it invariably leaves permanent scars.

Most strategic experts and even the general populace agree that problems between India and Pakistan cannot be resolved through war and ultimately those have to be resolved through talks. It is also well appreciated that elements in Pakistan would go all out to sabotage any reconciliation, and that contingency has to be factored into the talks process. But, any astute strategist would also assert that talks should not be from a position of weakness. Furthermore, any terrorist strike should not bring the talks process back to Square One, and that there should be a Plan B. But, does the NDA Govt have a Plan B? Its track record of flip-flops and alternately blowing hot and cold does not indicate so.  

'Complex Interdependence'

Complex interdependence characterizes the 21st Century world wherein geopolitical, economic and national security dimensions are more intertwined than ever before in history.  The inordinate increase in terrorist strikes worldwide, and the establishment of an Islamic Caliphate that purportedly will transcend national boundaries, threaten the extant world order. Likewise, the increasing socio-economic divide and unrest within countries, along with religious polarization in countries with sizeable Muslim populations, also have international ramifications in today's interconnected world. Hence, the canvas of topics under discussion on this blog will be wide, notwithstanding its India-centric focus. This blog seeks to promote candid and meaningful exchange of views, but without getting unduly polemical and offensive, which unfortunately characterizes most public discourse these days.