Armed Forces, Economy, Foreign Policy, National Security, Internal Environment

Friday, April 19, 2019

The Idea of Indian Nationhood is under Threat


The trigger for this BlogSpot is a close friend’s disagreement with my apprehension that the very idea of Indian Nationhood is under threat. He argues that it is a canard being spread by those opposed to Modi Ji, and he buttresses his argument by asking whether I saw lynchings or mayhem in the streets during my stay in India last year. No, I didn’t see that. However, an undercurrent of polarization and intolerance was certainly palpable compared with my previous visits, as were intimidation by Right-wing trolls and brazen muscle-power by its cadres and supporters.
Undoubtedly, there was also a sharp divide in all sections, even among the so-called intelligentsia, on the sharp pro or anti-Modi binary - nothing in between. More glaring was the wily masking of the forceful Hindutva rhetoric with the subtle, yet potent Nationalism label. Of course, the ploy was to define Nationalism ad lib and exploit it for everything, as and when required to shore up the original goals.
It was also clearly discernible how the original shrill ‘persecuted Hindus’ Narrative was toned down by embracing other emotive issues. One would recall how almost two years before the 2014 polls, social media was deluged with tales of atrocities against Hindus over the centuries, about the demographic invasion through prolific procreation by Muslims and Christians, love jihad, questions as to why terrorists worldwide are only from a particular religion, while ignoring the fact none was from the 172 million Muslims in India, and charges of Muslim appeasement. PM Manmohan Singh was denigrated in the vilest of terms, but the most abusive posts were directed against the Nehru-Gandhi family, with even attempts to trace their Muslim origins several generations back.
While the strategy worked and Modi was elected with a sweeping majority, much to the dismay of the Right-wing ideologues, BJP polled only 31% of the popular vote. Clearly, most Indians rejected the aggressive Hindutva stance, and hence a course correction was warranted. Then started a concerted image-building campaign by highlighting the softer nation-building agenda of the RSS (it even tried to snare Pranab Mukherjee). Hordes of ‘motivational speakers’ including many Veterans were hired to influence impressionable minds in schools and colleges. Numerous ‘right’-minded experts on economy etc and military experts filled TV panels on friendly channels to sing praises of the regime’s measures – even demonetization. Opposing views were shouted down, trolled or labeled anti-National.
How can I assert all this so definitively, you would ask? Contrary to popular belief that Right-wing strategy is formulated in Nagpur, a substantive role is played by the Hindutva organizations and ideologues among expatriates, especially those based in USA. More importantly, the financing of IT companies that control the trolls, the legions of motivational speakers, opinion makers and experts, and all other components of the campaign is taken care of by the deep pockets here. And tongues loosen up when single malts go down. Let us leave it at that.
Let us get back to the question as to why I feel the very idea of Indian Nationhood is under threat. Notwithstanding all the tactical flip-flops of the BJP (Mandir, go-raksha, NRC, polarization, and now Nationalism, soft rashtrawad etc) due to the electoral dynamic, the core agenda remains the same. It is no secret that the RSS has always been unhappy with the secular basis of our Nation, as enshrined in the Constitution. The ultimate goal remains the same – Hindu Rashtra – attained either de jure through Constitutional amendment or de facto through muscular intimidation, ghar wapsi, or Goebellsian indoctrination till the remaining Hindus fall in line.    
Religious polarization is dangerous. Once the genie is released, there is no turning back from the hell it creates. Recall how our parents used to say that when the Hindu Mahasabha and RSS on one side and the Muslim League on the other, first introduced their communal rhetoric in the 1930s, most people dismissed it as mere jockeying for positions by the politicians. How it turned into the communal holocaust of Partition was quite unexpected. Who suffered? Not the politicians on either side, who got plum positions. It was millions of innocent people caught in the communal frenzy.
I, as an infant, was one of those millions. My mother and I caught near fatal diseases during that ordeal. My father, the scion of one of the richest families in the entire district, started as a railway coolie carting coal in wheel-barrows at eight annas a day. He rebuilt his life and retired as a very senior Govt official. Same is the story of millions of others affected by the Partition. And yet, not once did my parents teach us to hate Muslims. All they said that it was a tragedy triggered by politicians, but foolishly gulped by gullible ordinary people who ended up paying the price.
Who paid the price for the communal polarization in Punjab in the 1980s, or in the Babri Masjid riots and the Gujarat carnage of 2002? Surely, in the 21st Century India, we the people cannot fall prey to the games politicians play for their own selfish ends. Let me ask another question. Why is it that you would find hardly any religious bigot among all those actually suffered during Partition or other upheavals? Why most of the Hindutva zealots are from those States, which were not directly affected? For them whipping communal frenzy is more a chauvinistic bravado than any genuine religiosity. They seem to seek an adrenalin rush from a communal riot as tamashbeen, as if it were a WWF fight.
Finally, as to the question why I should not be unduly apprehensive since I did not see mayhem on the streets. Such a complacent attitude can be disastrous. The British realized it in 1857 when the bubble burst, or the entire Indian subcontinent when it was overtaken by communal frenzy in 1947, and which madness culminated in Gandhi Ji’s assassination. Early in 1984, did we foresee the traumatic events that would follow later that year? It was ultimately the exceptional maturity and wisdom of the Sikh community that brought back Punjab from the brink, and saved our Nation from unraveling.
Let us not, therefore, forget the lessons from History. Communal and caste polarization is a clear and present danger, which is recklessly being fanned by politicians. There is immense pent up anger and frustration not just because of the hate-mongering environment, but also from real problems of unemployment and farm distress.  It is like a tinder box, which even a small spark can set off. Mayhem on the streets will surely follow. It is imperative that we citizens emphatically defeat the selfish politicians’ divisive agenda. 
BETTER TO BE SAFE THAN SORRY.

Saturday, April 6, 2019

Why Modi Ji’s Deflection to External Security is Disingenuous


BJP claims that the result of this election is a foregone conclusion, and it will beat its 2014 record. It argues that Modi Ji has performed exceptionally well on all fronts – be it economy, job creation, agricultural and industrial growth, social welfare schemes, communal harmony, foreign policy or security. So, where is the doubt?
If that were so, then why BJP and Modi Ji himself are in panic mode? Why the anxiety to deflect the focus from actual performance to Nehruvian era follies and National security? Why the repeated brazen and disgraceful violations of the Model Code (NaMo channel, NaMo movie, Modi’s Army etc), which a pusillanimous EC is unwilling to stop?
Even their focus on National security is deceitful because security is not confined only to the external dimension. In fact, the INTERNAL DIMENSION of security is far more important, since only internal stability and cohesion can provide the strong foundation to boost National strength in the external dimension.
Even a cursory analysis of the internal dimension will show that Modi Ji’s performance has been dismal. Thus, Jumlebaji becomes essential to divert attention.
I am pasting below a graphic showing various elements in the Internal Dimension of the comprehensive National Security Paradigm presented in my book “Citizens and Soldiers Keeping India’s Tryst with Destiny”. There is ample statistical and anecdotal evidence in my book on each of those elements, which substantiates my contention that the performance of the NDA Govt in the past five years has been poor. Even a layperson will come to the same conclusion by assessing Modi Ji’s performance on all those elements shown in the graphic.
ALL PATRIOTIC AND ENLIGHTENED CITIZENS MUST THEREFORE ANALYZE INDEPENDENTLY AND VOTE ACCORDINGLY

HOLISTIC FRAMEWORK OF NATIONAL SECURITY 

THE INTERNAL DIMENSION OF CORE STRENGTH & COHESIVENESS 




Tuesday, April 2, 2019

The Silence of the Lambs


The Silence of the Lambs

I am NOT as shocked by Yogi Adityanath’s outrageous dubbing of the Indian Army as “Modi Ji ki Sena”, as I am by the amoral and inexcusable silence of Modi-Bhakts within the Veterans community over this abomination. Are they so indoctrinated and steeped in his Bhakti that they have betrayed their allegiance to the Armed Forces, and indeed to the Constitution itself? Or, are they so fearful of Modi Ji that they have chosen to condone yet another among numerous blows to the honour and dignity of Faujis inflicted by him, his Raksha Mantri, and several other Chowkidars in the BJP hierarchy?

It is perfectly legitimate for Veterans to have personal views either in favour of Modi Ji and the BJP, or against them, after carrying out an objective analysis of their policies and performance. However, what is galling and betrays a lack of moral courage, is when they remain silent about their various misdeeds, especially against the Armed Forces, while at the same pouring scorn and ridiculing the Opposition at every opportunity.

Sadly, it is not just the Indian polity, but even a glorious, apolitical and secular institution such as the Armed Forces that have been polarized sharply in this highly vitiated electoral battle. This is dangerous. It will leave a lasting impact on this institution, which will be highly detrimental for the Nation’s security. Regrettably, the BJP, in its electoral desperation, is being very reckless in this regard.    

Thursday, March 28, 2019

The Choice in 2019 Elections

A feeling of desperation and panic is clearly palpable in the BJP. One can sense it in the shrill outbursts of their spokespersons on TV, the angry rants from their trolls and Bhakts on social media, and the repeated resort to “what about…” of the Congress era dating back to Nehru, when they are asked about failures of the Modi regime.   
It also manifests in the increasing resort to gimmickry (e.g. main bhi chowkidar), abusive name-calling of the disgusting sadak-chhap variety, high-decibel pseudo-Nationalism, and dubbing all who question Modi as anti-National and Pakistani agents.  
Chowkidar Modiji himself is leading this muscular response, fully aware that constant harping on National security, Balakot, ASAT etc alone can divert attention of the voters from the acute farm distress and unemployment problems, as well as the uncomfortable questions about various scams, including Rafale.   
BJP has cleverly intimidated the visual and print media into brazenly toeing its line. So, Nationalism is stoked and people’s problems are sidetracked. Likewise, the RSS and BJP have succeeded in dousing the clamour for the unfulfilled Ram Mandir promise, on which emotive issue it rose to power. It has thus been able to control the narrative substantially.
But, do TV debates and social media interactions really sway voters significantly in this age of 24/7 media bombardment? People’s minds are already made up, and the shouting bouts on TV serve only as amusement. Social media interactions on the other hand have become too toxic even between family and friends.
Elections are decided not by the urban middle class, but by millions of poor and under-privileged people, for whom everyday existence is a struggle. So, will the poor farmers overburdened with unpaid loans, or millions of unemployed youth really feel ecstatic and enthused when Modiji talks about his great achievements in Balakot and the ASAT launch? It might stir up their patriotic fervour for a few moments, but soon their hopeless situation in the ‘real world’ would engulf them again.
The Nation also carries deep scars on its psyche due to polarizing hate-mongering by the rioting, lynching and moral-policing cadres of various outfits under RSS tutelage.  Countless victims as well as millions of passive, but outraged observers too will now have an opportunity to give their verdict as to what sort of a Nation and society they want.  
I therefore feel this is going to be a landmark watershed election. Do we want a pluralist, secular and equitable society that our Constitution guarantees, or do we want a rabid majoritarian polity, an ever-increasing gap between the rich and poor, where the rich and the powerful subvert the rule of law and all institutions that are supposed to protect individual rights and dignity?
I BELIEVE THE CHOICE IS CLEAR.

State of Defence Preparedness

ASAT is indeed a technological milestone. Geopolitically too, it sends a signal worldwide.

It was inevitable that Chowkidar Modiji, with his penchant for usurping credit, would unabashedly grab Media Headlines, the EC's Model Code of Conduct notwithstanding.

But, despite all the hoopla and boasts about Modiji's so-called "muscular" approach to National security, almost all Strategic thinkers and experts point out the following serious failures or deficiencies on his watch.

1. Modiji ceded strategic space to Xi at Wuhan and gave too many concessions, without any matching response. China's intransigence on Masood Azhar, opposing our entry into NSG, and its continuing inflexibility on the border issue, especially on Arunachal go to show that Xi outsmarted him. 
2. Pakistan continued to sponsor terrorism in J&K despite Modiji's overtures to Nawaz Sharif. Pathankot, Uri, Amarnath Yatra, Srinagar etc showed that we were caught napping and reacted quite haphazardly. 
3. Despite the surgical strikes of 2016, Pakistan's terror sponsorship in J&K only increased and culminated in the Pulwama carnage. 
4. If Balakot was meant to send a signal, Pak signalled back with greater alacrity by sending its fighters across the LoC. We lost a MiG unfortunately, and even the episode of Pak returning our pilot let Pak derive great mileage in the eyes of the world. 
5. To the world, this exchange also showed the gaps and limitations of our so-called conventional edge over Pak, in air power at least. 
6. Conventional wisdom dictates that one should never boast if one has no intention or capability of following through. So, why thunder to a cheering electoral audience, "Ghar main ghus kar marenge", when a single message from Trump (which any strategy expert would tell you was bound to come) leads you to simmer down and back off like a "bheegi billi". 
7. There have been very serious Intelligence lapses over past four years, including the recent smuggled RDX used for Pulwama carnage. Yet, NO accountability has been fixed. It seems Doval is indispensable for Modiji, not for his primary Intelligence and National security duties, but for other 'political' purposes.
8. Modiji's policy on Defence is oriented more for Global consumption, and image-building abroad, than upon strengthening our Defence forces at home, which have very critical gaps in modernization and capacity-building.
9. These gaps have actually INCREASED on his watch with the Defence budget being reduced progressively in real terms over past four years. 
10. The much-delayed restructuring and reforms recommended by a host of committees like K Subhramanian's KRC, the GoM, and Naresh Chandra Committee have been put on the back-burner. Another very dangerous trend is the politicization of the Armed Forces, especially in hand-picking pliable officers for senior positions who will not question the Netas and Babus. 
11. It has been the misfortune of our Defence Forces that they have invariably gone into battle ill-clad (1962) and ill-equipped as compared to our adversaries. Yet, they have always carried the day with their valour, though at a terrible cost to lives and limbs. It is acknowledged worldwide, "it is the man behind the gun that matters". And yet, Modiji's RM, Chowkidar Seetharaman seems hell-bent on wrecking the morale and self-esteem of our soldiers in her numerous policies - all of which have gone against Faujis vis a vis civilian Babus and CAPFs. It is widely believed among the Defence personnel that she has the tacit approval of Modiji and Jaitley, both of whom are not favourably disposed to Faujis for various reasons. 
12. With all of the above, the damage to the Armed Forces in terms of HDM, defence modernization, infrastructure and morale is far too serious to ignore. The public, which is very empathetic and supportive, is unfortunately not aware of all this. Since all citizens are stakeholders in National security, they MUST RAISE THEIR VOICE, and call upon the Govt to arrest, and reverse this dangerous slide. Surely, the Nation cannot afford another 1962 like debacle.

Saturday, March 9, 2019

AG Recovers the “Stolen” Rafale File Overnight



If it were not a very serious matter of National security, all citizens would have laughed out loud at the farce being enacted in the Supreme Court since last week. The Attorney General argued before the SC that the Petitioners could not cite the Rafale documents published in The Hindu article, as those were from the Secret file that had been stolen from the Ministry of Defence (MoD). When questioned, he nonchalantly stated that an internal investigation was on, but no FIR had been lodged. Quite aghast, the Chief Justice directed him to file details of the loss and the actions taken at the next hearing.

Print and visual media, in obsequiousness to the Govt’s sensitivities, reported this in an uncharacteristically toned down matter of fact manner even though it was a bombshell, given that the Secret file pertained to the scam-tainted Rafale deal. Social media however went berserk, with alarmed citizens questioning how an ultra-sensitive Secret file could go missing from the MoD. Coming soon after the massive intelligence failure that led to the Pulwama carnage, people questioned the cavalier manner in which the Govt was treating National security. Irate citizens called for action against the Defence Secretary as the head of MoD, and the resignation of the RM.

Obviously, there was consternation in the Govt and Party circles. But, lo and behold, the very next day the AG discovered that the file was NOT STOLEN after all. It had merely been photocopied and leaked to The Hindu. As if photocopying of a Secret MoD document was any less serious or alarming a crime. It seemed as if the AG was mocking the SC Bench, and belittling the intelligence of the learned Judges.

Notwithstanding his advanced age, it is unlikely that a seasoned legal eagle like the AG would have committed a faux pas. Apparently, bumbling bureaucrats in the MoD have led him up the gum tree with their shoddy efforts to cover the tracks, primarily to save their Master, Modi Ji from the burgeoning Rafale scandal. It will be interesting to see if the Bench takes serious umbrage at this volte face. This is even more necessary since the Bench is already adjudicating the far more serious issue of the Govt misleading the Court with an unsigned affidavit that had several false and inaccurate statements.

Even to the most ardent BJP supporters it will be clear that there is much more to it than meets the eye. With its shoddy handling of the Rafale issue, the Govt has indeed strengthened the suspicions of even unbiased observers. It is an acknowledged axiom that the numerous attempts to cover up an original crime end up being far more lethal. Perhaps, the Modi Govt could have learnt a lesson from Dirty Dick’s fate in the infamous Watergate scandal.

Thursday, March 7, 2019

NSA Overseeing Military Operations


It is outright bizarre that the NSA is overseeing active military operations and the Service Chiefs report to him. True,entrust that he has the status of MoS but the PM's decision to trust him rather than Service Chiefs during operations is absurd.

He has no expertise in military warfare, in which the Service Chiefs have 40 years of intense training, combat experience, and professional handling of such a large force. For a person who is not adept at his own job, and on whose watch so many intelligence failures and terror strikes (even as recently as Pulwama), it is inexplicable why would the PM put him in overall charge during such a critical time.